Publications

Enhancing Profit and CO2 Mitigation: Commercial Direct Air Capture Design and Operation with Power Market Volatility

Zhiyuan Fan a b, Elizabeth Dentzer c, James Glynn d, David S. Goldberg e, Julio Friedmann f, Bolun Xu a . "Enhancing Profit and CO2 Mitigation: Commercial Direct Air Capture Design and Operation with Power Market Volatility." Engineering (2026).
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2095809926001268

a Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA

b Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA

c Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA

d  Energy Systems Modelling Analytics Limited, Galway H91 HE9E, Ireland

e Lamont–Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, New York, NY 10964, USA

f Carbon Direct, New York, NY 10004, USA

Abstract

Current decarbonization efforts are falling short of meeting the net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emission target, highlighting the need for substantial carbon dioxide removal methods such as direct air capture (DAC). However, integrating DACs poses challenges due to their enormous power consumption. This study assesses the commercial operation of various DAC technologies that earn revenue using monetized carbon incentives while purchasing electricity from wholesale power markets. We model four commercial DAC technologies and examine their operation in three representative locations including California, Texas, and New York in United States. Our findings reveal that commercial DAC operations can take financial advantage of the volatile power market to operate only during low-price periods strategically, offering a pathway to facilitate a cost-efficient decarbonization transition. The ambient operational environment such as temperature and relative humidity has non-trivial impact on abatement capacity. Profit-driven decisions introduce climate-economic trade-offs that might decrease the capacity factor of DAC and reduce total CO2 removal. These implications extend throughout the entire lifecycle of DAC developments and influence power systems and policies related to full-scale DAC implementation. Our study shows that DAC technologies with shorter cycle spans and higher flexibility can better exploit the electricity price volatility, while power markets demonstrate persistent low-price windows that often synergize with low grid emission periods, like during the solar “duck curve” in California. An optimal incentive design exists for profit-driven operations while carbon-tax policy in electricity pricing is counterproductive for DAC systems.

Keywords

Direct air capture; Carbon dioxide removal; Profit-driven decarbonization; Climate-economic trade-off; Power market integration; Electricity price volatility; Climate change; Carbon incentive policy; Optimization; Carbon tax

Technology and policy options for achieving net zero steel manufacturing in the United States

Francis GN Li a, Chris Bataille b, Seton Stiebert c, Taiba Jafari b, Olexandr Balyk b, and James Glynn b. "Technology and policy options for achieving net zero steel manufacturing in the United States." Energy Policy 211 (2026): 115124.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115124

a Subtext Systems LLC, Lake Tahoe, Nevada, USA
b Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University, New York, USA
c Stiebert Consulting, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

Abstract

This paper explores strategies for achieving net zero emissions in the United States steel industry by 2050, consistent with the Paris Agreement. The US faces a pivotal moment in the lifecycle of its steel production fleet in the late 2020s, where the opportunity exists to integrate next generation clean steel technologies into the industrial base and become a global market leader in net zero steel by mid-century. Effective policy support at the federal and state levels will be essential for transitioning the most GHG-intensive production methods to cleaner alternatives during this upcoming window of opportunity. Our results indicate that the Inflation Reduction Act alone is unlikely to be sufficient to drive a timely transition to net-zero steel production, and that additional demand-side, trade-related, and post-IRA policy measures are required. The paper contextualizes U.S. steel production within global efforts, examining implications for technological change, energy demand, emissions reductions, and international trade using a geospatially detailed techno-economic model of steel production across 137 countries and 1000+ facility locations. Our analysis finds that the US is well positioned to be one of the first countries in the world to achieve net zero steel manufacturing and could make this transition using existing technologies, but the speed of transition and the resulting patterns of investment are sensitive to US policy choices on trade openness to the rest of the world and with close allies. Trade-restrictive pathways, while capable of accelerating domestic decarbonization, also entail higher costs and economic risks that must be carefully managed.

Symbolic Regression for Modelling Decarbonisation Pathways in the Global Energy-Economy-Climate System

McDermott, James, James Glynn, Iain Morrow, and Evangelos Panos. "Symbolic Regression for Modelling Decarbonisation Pathways in the Global Energy-Economy-Climate System." In Proceedings of the Genetic and Evolutionary Computation Conference Companion, pp. 871-874. 2025.
https://doi.org/10.1145/3712255.3726704

Abstract

The ETSAP-TIAM Model is a process-based optimisation model of the global energy system, integrated with a climate and economy model that explicitly represents detailed energy technology processes including generation, transmission, and end-use across sectors. It provides a tool to inform policy by examining the effects of policy changes on outcomes. However, the model is complex, large, and unwieldy. In this paper, we develop a suite of Genetic Programming Symbolic Regression (SR) surrogate models. The benefits are both interpretability and instant response of the new model to parameter changes. Considering both regression performance and model complexity, we compare a SR system with strong baselines, exploring different points on the performance—interpretability curve. Finally, we read and interpret several of our models.

Conceptualising global cultural transformation—developing deep institutional scenarios for whole of society change

Hughes, I., Hernandez, A. M., Glynn, J., Hynes, W., & Gallachóir, B. Ó. (2024). Conceptualising global cultural transformation—developing deep institutional scenarios for whole of society change. Environmental Research Letters, 19(9), 094050.
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad6d7f/meta

Abstract

This paper aims to contribute to current efforts to improve methodologies to find more ambitious and integrated strategies to jointly pursue the Paris climate target and other Sustainable Development Goals. It suggests a means of further expanding the underlying societal perspectives in scenarios modelling through a model of deep institutional innovation for sustainability and human development (DIIS), which aims to reframe the narrative from sociotechnical transition to deep global cultural transformation. The paper posits the need for capturing irreversible transformation change through a fundamental reimagining of the key social institutions that together comprise contemporary societies. To illustrate the application of the DIIS framing to pathway scenarios an indicative scenario is offered to indicate the radical global cultural changes required to move to pathways capable of bringing about greater sustainability and human flourishing.