Publications

Implications of accelerated and delayed climate action for Ireland’s energy transition under carbon budgets

Aryanpur, V., Balyk, O., Glynn, J., Gaur, A., McGuire, J., & Daly, H. (2024). Implications of accelerated and delayed climate action for Ireland’s energy transition under carbon budgets. npj Climate Action, 3(1), 97.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s44168-024-00181-7

Abstract

Limiting global warming requires the effective implementation of energy mitigation measures by individual countries. However, the consequences of the timing of these efforts on the technical feasibility of adhering to cumulative carbon budgets—which determines future global warming—are underexplored. Moreover, existing national studies on carbon budgets either overlook integrated sectoral interactions, path dependencies, or comprehensive demand-side strategies. To address this, we analyse Ireland’s mitigation pathways under equal per-capita carbon budgets using an energy systems optimisation model. Our findings reveal that delayed mitigation brings forward the need for a net-zero target by five years, risks carbon lock-in and stranded assets, increase reliance on carbon dioxide removal technologies and leads to higher long-term mitigation costs. To keep the Paris Agreement targets, countries must set and meet accelerated mid-term mitigation goals and address energy demand.

China Energy Transformation Outlook 2024

Wang Zhongying, Han Wenke, Kaare Sandholt, Bai Quan, Zhao Yongqiang, Yang Hongwei, Zheng Yanan, Gu Lijing, An Qi, Tao Ye, Liu Jian, He Ze, Shi Jingli, Zhong Caifu, Hu Runqing, Zhang Jianguo, Fu Guangyun, Yi Wenjing, Pei Qingbing, Tian Yushen, Guo Minxiao, Su Ming, Fan Lijuan, Hou Wensen, Anton Beck, Lars Grundahl, Xu Jie, Wang Xinnan, Natasha Amalie Gjerløv Fiig, Bjarke Nepper-Rasmussen, Gregers N.S. Larsen, Matteo d'Andrea, Lars Bregnbæk, Anant Atul Visaria, Lars Pauli Bornak, Christian Bang, Peter Børre Eriksen, David Sandalow, James Glynn, Kevin Tu, Sally Qiu, Yan Sheng, Geir Yngve Hermansen, Yan Qin, 2023, China Energy Transformation Outlook. Energy Research Institute of Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research.
https://www.cet.energy/category/reports/

Key Findings of the CETO2024 Report

With significant efforts, the energy transformation can make a decisive contribution to China’s efforts to achieve a carbon-neutral society before 2060. Under the Baseline Carbon Neutrality Scenario (BCNS) and the Ideal Carbon Neutrality Scenario (ICNS), with the accelerated development of energy transformation technologies (including negative carbon technologies such as carbon capture) and related industries, China’s energy system can achieve net-zero carbon emissions before 2060, paving the way to make the Chinese society as a whole carbon neutral before 2060. Through modelling analysis and thematic research, the group came to five important conclusions:

Energy conservation and efficiency are prerequisites for the energy transformation, and sustained electrification is an effective way to move towards carbon neutrality.

Building a power system with wind and solar as the mainbody is a necessary choice for energy transformation.

Building a highly intelligent power grid is a central measurement to establishing a new type of power system.

Scientific and technological innovation is the driving force of the energy transformation, and new energy productivity breeds vast market opportunities.

Energy system and mechanism reforms must continue to deepen while simultaneously establishing a legal framework to drive the energy transformation.

In summary, China’s energy transformation is a long-term and challenging societal project. China will simultaneously advance its energy transformation across five areas: electrify energy consumption and improve energy efficiency, decarbonise energy supply, enhance interaction between energy supply and demand, commercialise energy technologies, and modernise energy governance. At the same time, China should strengthen international cooperation on energy transformation, exploring pathways together with the global community. In doing so, China will not only ensure the smooth progression of its own energy transformation but also contribute significantly to the global effort.